The year 2023 ended with encouraging signals for the German economy. The HDE consumer barometer shows an increase to 96.4 points, signaling a positive trend in the consumer climate, which was reflected in consumers' increasing purchasing mood in December - especially due to the Christmas shopping season. However, at the beginning of January 2024, the barometer was already showing a slight disadvantage.

The ifo economic forecast picks up on the positive trend from December and predicts German gross domestic product growth of 0.9% for 2024. In comparison, a GDP forecast of 0.3% was most recently forecast for 2023. The ifo Institute's initial forecasts for 2024 even assumed GDP growth of 1.4%. The correction can be attributed to uncertainties and challenges such as high inflation rates in consumer-related services, global imponderables and the complex situation surrounding the federal budget.
Despite this correction, the general mood and expectations of retailers for the coming year remain positive. They are betting on continued stabilization in consumer sentiment, even if external factors continue to need to be closely monitored.

The year 2023 was marked by numerous bankruptcies, but also adaptability and resilience in the retail industry, global inflation and political topics of discussion. It remains to be seen to what extent these developments will continue in 2024 or whether a completely different economic situation awaits us.

Source: DIW, ifo Institute, dpa

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